Global Guerrillas

JOURNAL: DefenseTech in an Age of Scarcity

2008-11-21T16:56:30-05:00

Noah Schachtman, Editor of Wired's Danger Room, asked me what was missing in the current debate about defense technology. Here's the article that resulted.

GG RADAR: Mid-November 2008

2008-11-17T13:10:00-05:00

Some interesting reading:

Piracy reaches a modern milestone. Somali pirates seized a Saudi (ARAMCO) super-tanker off the coast of Kenya (area in the region now under threat of piracy is estimated at 1.1 m square miles). The holes in the global security system are so big now, that you can drive a super-tanker through them.
Hilarious. Envisioning the lair of the 4GW super-villain.
Still looking forward to the Boyd Conference on PEI (Prince Edwards Island) in December.
Fraying social situations. Rapid rise of poaching gangs in the UK. The elderly crime wave in Japan (retirement = economic failure). Both are a glimpse at the near-term future of the US.
The Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru recast as a criminal/guerrilla group. The bazaar of violence spreads as the distinction between guerrilla and criminal fades (see "Illicit" and "McMafia" for details on how these transnational criminal markets emerge).
Rich Mexicans spend more on bodyguards as security deteriorates. Excellent quote by a Mexican businessman: “One bodyguard, two bodyguards, even three of them can’t do anything with these criminals, who come in groups of 20 with high-powered arms. If they want to hunt you down, they will get you.” This is going to be a gold mine of an industry in the US by early in the next decade.

THE SWITCH

2008-11-13T08:22:57-05:00

Traditional guerrilla movements and insurgencies were founded on strict ideologies or political agendas. As a result, their organizations tended towards hierarchy and strong central control. However, the advent of a dominant global market (that no organization, despite claims to the contrary, controls) and the subsequent and inevitable weakening of the nation-state changed that. It substituted market values for ideological or political values and insurgencies are quickly changing to reflect that. For example:

A group is only successful, long term, if it can consistently generate wealth (as in: enjoy economic success).
Dynamism, resilience, and flexibility are prized over size, rigidness, and purity.
Alliances, cooperation, and interconnectedness is better than "go it alone" or rabidly competitive approaches.

The Impact on Organizations
This "switch" also means that control of the nation-state became is nearly useless in an environment where success was only generated by competition within a global market system at a local level. As a result, modern or 21st Century guerrilla movements/insurgencies increasingly don't put ideology or politics first (although there are some high profile hold-outs, reversals such as al Qaeda suffered in Iraq demonstrate that an inability to invert goals is the path to failure). Increasingly, they put economics first, or more specifically: they focus on the ability of the group and its members to generate wealth. They do this through the integration of their military capability with production centers and supply routes that power the multi-trillion dollar flows of Black Globalization. This connection provides them with the ability to:

Grow Support. Become competitive with the state in an ability to generate wealth (and everything that economic advantage implies: from services to security) for supporters. This is a competition for legitimacy and nation-state are increasingly losing that competition.
Grow Operations. Grow operations through the development of business operations that enable ever greater wealth. Contrast this to the spiraling deficits and (soon) cuts in security budgets at the nation-state level.
Gain Efficiency and Productivity. Financial success enables these groups to efficiently expand operations through dynamic market operations that enable the rapid purchase of everything from assassinations to IED attacks. This not only vastly expands the pool of participants, it enables specialization and rapid innovation.

It should be apparent that "the switch" to economic agendas in combination with decentralized organizational structures makes modern guerrillas much more dangerous than ever in history. While 9/11 demonstrated the growing leverage (in an ability to do harm) of small groups and Iraq/Afghanistan the power of doggedness of decentralized organizations, this depression will demonstrate the strength of economically driven operations. Barring a major and unforeseen redux in how nation-states operate, we might see the world look like Swiss cheese by early in the next decade: as in, most nation-states riddled with ungoverned spaces/holes in their territory, lost to insurgent groups.

BOOK REVIEW: The Starfish and the Spider

2008-11-13T07:02:21-05:00

I had the pleasure to briefly meet (to compare notes) and then listen to a presentation by Ori Brafman, the author of the Starfish and the Spider a month ago. The presentation and the book are both very slick introductions to the concepts that power decentralized organizations. I might add more to this post to make it truly a review, but it may suffice to describe the book as a Decentralized Organizations 101 course. It's an excellent introduction to how decentralized organizations function for those that are having difficulty (either conceptually or due to a lack of experience) understanding basic dynamics and functions.

In contrast, this site is graduate level coursework for the serious thinkers on the topic.

STEMI Compression

2008-11-12T08:28:18-05:00

Here's a highly theoretical construct I believe is useful for the analysis (h/t John Smart) of rapidly evolving systems. Hopefully, you find it useful too.
_________

In the evolution of technology, the next generation of a particular device/program often follows a well known pattern in the marketplace: its design makes it MUCH cheaper, faster, and more capable. This allows it to crowd out the former technology and eventually dominate the market (i.e. transistors replacing vacuum tubes in computation). A formalization of this developmental process is known as STEMI compression:

Space. Less volume/area used.
Time. Faster.
Energy. Less energy. Higher efficiency.
Mass. Less waste.
Information. Higher efficiency. Less management overhead.

So, the viability of a proposed new generation of a particular technology can often be evaluated based on whether it offers a substantial improvement in the compression of all aspects of STEMI without a major loss in system complexity or capability. This process of analysis also gives us an "arrow" of development that can be traced over the life of a given technology.

Broader Applicability?
STEMI compression may also be useful in analyzing the development path for other types of systems (i.e. biology, economics, etc. although the work to fully demonstrate that has yet to be done). The question I asked myself, given the ongoing failure of the global system and my work on Resilient Communities, is:

Do Resilient Communities offer the promise of a generational improvement over the existing global system or not?

In other words: is the Resilient Community concept (as envisioned here) a viable self-organizing system that can rapidly and virally crowd out existing structures due to its systemic improvements? Using STEMI compression as a measure, there is reason to believe it is:

Space. Localization (or hyperlocalization) radically reduces the space needed to support any given unit of human activity. Turns useless space (residential, etc.) into productive space.
Time. Wasted time in global transport is washed away. JIT (just in time production) and place.
Energy. Wasted energy for global transport is eliminated. Energy production is tied to locality of use. More efficient use of solar energy (the only true exogenous energy input to our global system).
Mass. Less systemic wastage. Made to order vs. made for market.
Information. Radical simplification. Replaces hideously complex global management overhead with simple local management systems.

The above indicates that Resilient Communities do offer what appears to be a generational improvement in system design. However, one final requirement must be met. Does this generational improvement conserve or replicate the computational complexity of the previous system? Can it continue to process, innovate, and respond as quickly as the previous system? I believe the answer is yes. If Resilient Communities remain globally connected via Internet networks, there's reason to believe that re-localization is possible without losing any of the previous computational complexity of the system. Further, as the new self organizing system replaces the old one, new forms of organizational innovation (open source, for example) may radically outpace the progress seen in the previous system.

NOTE: There's two long trends in technology that may cement this switch. The first is the radical increase of information density in any and all production process. The majority of almost all processes in almost every industry segment is now a form of information manipulation rather than a manipulation of matter. To wit: how easy it is for most knowledge workers today to work at home.

Second is a switch to bio-processing. In short, growing your computer or product rather than manufacturing it. The development of this technology might get us out of the only centralization trap left: fabrication facilities using exotic materials to make computer chips. Both of these trends may make decentralization nearly costless to the computational complexity of the system.

NOTE2: The availability of a self-organizing and superior alternative to the (now failing) legacy system implies that its implied collapse might be historically brief. It also means that its collapse isn't necessarily a bad thing since its replacement puts us, collectively, on a growth path to radically faster wealth creation (and nsulates us against growing excesses, dislocations, and failures of the existing systems function). More simply, will you accept vastly lower living standards and much higher risks to work/live within the existing system or will you opt out with a Resilient Community?

RC JOURNAL: Decentralized Entrepreneurial Hot Spots

2008-11-11T14:36:08-05:00

In the early days of Silicon Valley, one of the entrepreneurial hot spots that spurred innovation was Buck's Woodside restaurant (I recommend a visit if you are ever in the area). It's the place where entrepreneurs cut deals with venture capitalists (from nearby Sand Hill road) to launch many of the most successful technology companies in the world. However, in today's environment, a concentrated hot zone like Bucks or a Silicon Valley isn't viable (or wanted).

Instead, we are seeing highly decentralized hot spots of local innovation. One such place is Claire's restaurant in Hardwick VT (recently mentioned in the NYTimes). Local entrepreneurs meet at Claire's to jointly and cooperatively innovate. The main focus of their effort is to remake Hardwick (a failed mining town) into a vibrant community through a revival of local agriculture. To do so, they are building a complex hybrid of local agriculture, business, technology, finance, and community connectivity. For example, they share equipment, capital ($300,000 so far and counting), and insight. They even do business with each other and have joined cooperatively to create a 30 farmer community supported agriculture (CSA) program. Essentially, the effort underway at Claire's is building the foundations for a resilient community.

If there isn't a "Claire's" in your town, make one.

GG RADAR: Early November 2008

2008-11-10T11:35:56-05:00

On the radar:

The Reverse Inkblot. John Sullivan of the LA Police's anti-terrorist group, makes a great observation. The effect that occurs when many small groups create temporary autonomous zones within a country looks like a reverse inkblot/oilspot (inkblot/oilspot is the name for a strategy of creating zones of local order via counter-insurgency that can be stitched together to heal the whole) -- albeit one without central direction. Personally, given the opening a silly/archaic name like inkblot gives me, I would like to point out that the world will soon be made of cheese, swiss cheese!
Cyber attacks more potent? Markoff in the NYTimes. The most interesting observation is that biggest/best example of network damage was due to being the battleground for a war between criminal guerilla groups over territory (which is what happens when GGs are unopposed by nation-states).
Micro Nuclear Power? The Telegraph. Yet another example of how technology is trending towards empowering the small with capabilities typically reserved for global actors. It's a trend not only applicable to warfare, but to the technologies of resilience too.
Is the formation of independent militias (that fight the occupier, the nation-state, and the insurgency) a sign of progress in a war with an open source insurgency? Bill Lind argues that it is. I agree since it bifurcates the open source insurgency. However, I would point out that this development ensures that the nation-state will remain hollow since these militias aren't loyal to the government and will gain legitimacy over time (by providing security and connecting to the global marketplace).
Will post more today. Check back.

JOURNAL: Five Stages of Collapse

2008-11-10T10:36:32-05:00

Dmitry Orlov (author of the excellent book, Reinventing Collapse) has an excellent presentation he calls the Five Stages of Collapse -- a pattern of collapse seen in Russia and Eastern Europe during the 90's (on Google Docs, click to view in new window). These stages are:

Financial Collapse. Already in motion.
Commercial Collapse. Just started.
Political Collapse (a loss of faith in ideology). First part is over (the recent election in the US). Second part is going to be nasty.
Social Collapse. Potentially the end state or stable equilibrium point for most of the world. Everyone against everyone with points awarded by the global marketplace.
Cultural Collapse. Full meltdown. Global market breaks.

The collapse in the USSR/Eastern Europe ended due to connectivity to a large external environment, collectively the West, which provided stability and a route back from chaos. We don't have an external environment to gain support from with our collapse. It's global.

THE STAGE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY'S EPOCHAL CONFLICT

2008-11-04T09:38:38-05:00

Sorry for the slowdown in posting. I'm thinking through the implications of our current situation and the process is slow going as I run it through my frameworks. Here's some early thinking that you may find useful (or not):

Setting the Stage

The prolonged economic and financial crisis of the 1930's (the Depression) forced the development of the modern nation-state. To mitigate the effects of this crisis, the nation-state learned to mobilize and manage national economies on a scale never seen before. Inevitably, the process used to extend control wasn't uniform, it took three different ideological routes -- government control, corporate control, and a corporate/government market mitigated symbiosis. This eventually yielded a fight for dominance that resulted in both WW2 and the Cold War. One approach eventually won.

Unfortunately, it's growing increasingly clear that we've entered another prolonged economic and financial crisis, which may become the Depression of the 2010's. So, if we follow the historical pattern (important: while history doesn't repeat, it rhymes), we will likely see new organizational solutions develop that mitigate the effects of this crisis. If this is true, it's very useful to identify what's different between this crisis and the last:

Global and not national. Unlike the previous, this potential Depression will be global -- aka HUGE, FAST, and COMPLEX -- and not national. This means that the solutions needed to mitigate its impact will only occur on the global stage.
Systemic disruptions. The second difference is that we will continue see numerous systemic shocks on a global scale. These shocks will increase in frequency as the dynamic instability of the global system becomes acute. Organizational structures that aren't resilient will be washed away.
Post-ideological. Mass movements and ideologies are dead. Global markets and social fragmentation now rule. This means that we can't expect a repeat of the 20th Century solution set.

The question now becomes, what will these "solutions" that mitigate the effects of the "coming" Depression look like? The natural reflex is to assume that our nation-states will formulate a response. However, that doesn't appear to be a well founded assumption since this global problem is MUCH bigger, faster and more complex than they can handle. Further, nation-states have been in decline for nearly 35 years as they gradually ceded elements of sovereignty to a now dominant global marketplace (which was built to help America's ideological solution triumph over Communism during the Cold War). As a result, we can expect that moves by nation-states to prop up a global scale problem won't work. Worse, many states will likely go broke in the process,* well before the problem is mitigated. Instead, we can expect -- and this is purely speculative since the real responses won't be truly visible until well into the next decade -- three potential solutions to emerge (how they fight and who is likely to win is the most interesting aspect of this emergence to me). More on this in a later post.

*Will many nation-states go broke? Almost inevitably. For example, the US national debt went up 5%, or $574 billion, in only one month (October 2008). That is likely only the start of vastly more red ink. Why? The debt overhang for America, is estimated to be 370% of GDP (a combination of public, private, and corporate debt). This equates to $30 Trillion in debt over the long term sustainable level of 160% of GDP. That excess $30 Trillion in debt will need to be reduced to $0 before we can be restored to any semblance of fiscal health according to the existing model (in the last Depression, we went from 260% debt/GDP to 140%). There is a similar vulnerability to excess debt in many of the world's nation-states.

**Note that there is now, for the first time, a robust market for Credit Default Swaps (a financial product that allows you to bet on bankruptcy) tied to the solvency of the United States government. Note the direction of the price (higher rates mean a greater expectation of default).

JOURNAL: Some Final Observations

2008-10-25T21:44:25-04:00

One of the most interesting aspects of this crisis is that it is truly a global crisis. This is arguably a first. In historical crises, wars or catastrophes, there is always a large external environment of relative normalcy. Our first real global event will directly impact all economic activity from Botswana to Albany at a relatively granular level. It's even more interesting since the impact of this event is occurring simultaneously in all places at once.

This is a very bad thing. Not only is the information globally dispersed, but it is likely to recast world's economic psychology nearly overnight. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt spread at the speed of light. This has/will cause a substantial decline in demand as people and companies become cautious. Since it is all simultaneous in effect, the cumulative impact will be seen as a comprehensive demand shock (as in rapidly declining demand for goods and services).

If it occurs, this demand shock would quickly hit the global information systems that run the world's companies (they run everything on a just in time basis from finance to inventory). A rapid fall of in demand would likely rapidly translate into a quickly executed -- information technology enabled, so what used to take many months will now take days -- change in corporate behavior. This change in corporate behavior will force cut backs across the board from jobs to purchases to investments. Since it will occur nearly simultaneously (within weeks) of the initial fall of in demand, these cutbacks will be seen as another demand shock and so on.

Since there isn't any stable external environment untouched by the crisis, this may become a uncorrectable and self-reinforcing feedback loop. Also, since most economic statistics have substantial lag, we may not even know it is occurring until we reach the next big tipping point.

Hopefully, the global system isn't as efficient as we designed it to be.

NOTE: Here's an interesting academic paper that looked at whether the great depression of the 20th Century could have been forecast using modern economic techniques/analysis (remember, the depression looked like it was merely a recession when it began). It concludes that it couldn't have been anticipated. It was a black swan.

JOURNAL: TURBULENCE

2008-10-22T19:06:26-04:00

A short PBS interview with Benoit Mandelbrot and my compatriot, Nassim Taleb, on the current financial/economic crisis.

It underlines my ongoing fear that this crisis will recast the world at a fundamental level. Why? Our simplistic, slow, and fractured 20th Century control system isn't capable of stabilizing a financial/economic system of this complexity/speed/size once it becomes very turbulent. As a result, the global system will follow its own course, dictated by its hypercomplex internal dynamics and feedback loops, destroying everything that gets in its way.

Like Nassim, I hope I'm wrong.

For the engineers and pilots out there, our current situation is akin to trying to fly an F-22 at the edge of its performance envelope with only cables and pulleys for control inputs. NOTE: cables and pulleys are the classic control system for 20th Century aircraft. The pilot inputs a control movement on a pedal or the stick and the cable/pulley system translates the input into a movement of the control surface (elevator, etc.). Direct pilot control is possible because the plane wants to fly -- i.e. is stable. In contrast, in order to get high performance, modern designs are made to be unstable. As a result, modern aircraft require control system inputs every 1/32 of a second or more, all of it done automatically. If these control inputs aren't made, the plane will rapidly exceed its design capacity and lose structural integrity.

One way to look at it: We are all Iceland now.

PACKAGED COMMUNITY RESILIENCE?

2008-10-21T11:23:03-04:00

In my book, Brave New War, I made the case that we would face a series of global systemic shocks of increasing scope, frequency and amplitude. However, unfortunately, we wouldn't be able to anticipate (at a societal level) with any certainty what these shocks will be (they will be Black Swans). Further, I believed that the decline(not collapse, since there isn't an alternative system that will replace it) of the nation-state as an organization, would mean that the will, means, and flexibility necessary to respond to these challenges would be increasingly insufficient. In other words, the big "Manhattan" projects or "Marshall" plans to respond to these challenges not only won't be launched, they are unlikely to work (they only seem to exist in the reality distortion fields generated by writers like Tom Friedman). What is in the realm of possibility and will work is to invent, construct, and implement solutions that provide resilience at the community level. These solutions must be:

Fast.
Cheap.
Sustainable.

One of the best ways to seed these early efforts is through Pentagon funding, particularly since community resilience plays a decisive role in counter-insurgency, disaster relief, and deep/remote deployments. Until recently, there hasn't been any movement towards packaging community resilience. Now there is. Lin Wells (I've had the pleasure to meet Lin on numerous occasions), a professor at the NDU (National Defense University), has taken it upon himself to coordinate a project called STAR-TIDES (Sustainable Technologies, Accelerated Research-Transportable Infrastructures for Development and Emergency Support). It's already produced some interesting results however MUCH more needs to be done. It needs some funding (millions and not billions). Here's an idea: eliminate the purchase of a single conventional weapon that will only gather dust (great power war is going the way of the Dodo) and put it into something that will become a critical element in nearly every DoD mission over the next 20 years: packaged community resilience.

BTW: I'd be more than happy to manage this effort if it does get funded. Fairly sure my demonstrated expertise in everything from military theory to technical innovation to hyper-efficient/fast project management is likely perfect for that slot.

BTW2: Of course, there is absolutely NO chance this offer will ever be capitalized upon. The DoD would never 1) invest in something so innovative nor 2) put someone in charge that isn't politically connected. I just made the offer to show I am really willing to help, even though it is almost certainly futile.

GG RADAR: Late October 2008

2008-10-20T08:18:18-04:00

Some mind food:

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933 Here's some amazing quotes from US economic elites during the last depression.
Attacks on EnCanada's gas pipelines in British Colombia. Early stirrings.
Red Team Journal is running an essay contest. "In their submissions, essayists should describe a national security issue of future concern from a traditional perspective and then reconsider the same issue from an unconventional or alternative perspective."
P2P TV via Joost. Now client free.
"The Great Crash of China" by Brian Klein.
"Permablitz" An informal gathering involving a day on which a group of at least two people come together to achieve the following: 1) create or add to edible gardens where someone lives 2) share skills related to permaculture and sustainable living 3) build community networks 4) have fun
Bringing Down the House, by Anne Applebaum in Slate. How even unsubstantiated rumors about the financial health of companies/banks can be used as a weapon of destabilization in this crisis. I've been thinking about this for quite a while too, since it is an excellent GG tactic (however, she wrote it up).

JOURNAL: The Descent of the West

2008-10-15T19:58:45-04:00

There are already significant signs that October's massive multi-government bail-out of the global financial system has failed (in less than a week). Worse, the fundamentals of the tangible economy are also showing signs of rapid onset failure. We are now headed towards a severe global recession (potentially depression) that will last years (or worse, a decade or more). Here's some potential headlines for articles we may read in the near to mid term (this crisis is moving quickly, so they may come sooner than later):

"The Zombie Nation-State" Financially fragile nation-states, depleted by numerous and massive bail-outs, now dominate the global landscape. What happened?

"The American Consumer RIP" Massive debt and diminishing incomes have killed the American consumer. We explain why the death of the American consumer will remake the global economy.

"The Incredible Shrinking DoD" How the US Department of Defense, which once controlled a budget as big as the rest of the world combined, will soon be less than half of its previous size.

"Why Did China Fail?" The collapse and subsequent split up of China caught the entire world by surprise. In this article, we explore the connection between the end of American consumerism and political failure in China.

GG RADAR: Early October 2008

2008-10-13T08:13:17-04:00

Interesting mind food:

Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan) gets angry with economists and other types of financial quants (the know nothing, well compensated establishment that drove us off the financial cliff). I'm on board with him, although I also have the same problem with the weak thinking upon which US security is based. Here's an excellent audio show on the financial crisis from NPR, for those that want to spool up.
Defensive strategies for communities: slow foreclosures/evictions (currently running at 250,000 foreclosures a month and rapidly rising). Chicago has a watered down version of this. Philly is in the lead. The key factor: drive as deep a wedge between the dysfunctional global economy and your community as possible. Keep people in their homes as long as possible. If you don't, you risk hollowing out your community.
Games for learning. Superstruct, a new massively multiplayer game that explores solutions to global catastrophe. CNA's "Wargaming the Fourth Generation" (and old link). I would suggest modeling 4GW in virtual worlds to allow more complex behavior.

JOURNAL: Cascading Bubbles

2008-10-10T10:18:03-04:00

One way to view our current situation is as a cascading collapse in bubbles of faith/legitimacy. Here are the bubbles:

Small. A belief in the US consumer. US subprime mortgates collapse. US prime mortgages and US commercial real-estate and consumer credit follow.
Big. A belief in the Shadow Banking system. The investment banking system implodes. Hedge funds liquidate. Money markets/commercial paper seize up. Financial insurance evaporates.
Bigger. A belief in the global banking and market system. Systemic bank failures. Global markets crunch.
Huge. A belief in the US as a global economic power. US treasuries and the dollar crash. Numerous national bankruptcies.

We are now at the last stage. Watch the price of treasuries and the dollar.

RC JOURNAL: Towards Supempowered Homes

2008-10-08T14:41:01-04:00

The value of a home today is based on location (commute distance, school quality, neighborhood, etc.), size, and quality/amenities. However, those metrics are likely to change markedly in the near future, mainly due to the recognition of the rising risks and uncertainties of living a globally connected world. This realization will generate new metrics by which we value a home -- the most important of which may be a home's (whether it be an apartment building or a single family home) ability to retain and produce energy. Homes that don't have high scores in this area (which unfortunately will be the majority) put their owners at risk of financial ruin, dislocation, and deprivation.

NOTE: Excess production will likely be electricity (a premium energy product), which is shared/sold with/to community members.

RESILIENT COMMUNITY: Micropower

2008-10-08T08:57:05-04:00

Centralized electricity production made sense in the 20th Century. Here's why:

Energy was cheap so it could be wasted. 80% of the energy used in electricity production and transmission is lost as heat. However, that isn't true anymore (either in absolute cost or costs relative to income).
Transmission capacity was on the rise. Unfortunately, investments in transmission haven't grown in 30 years and NIMBY is preventing any improvement. Transmission lines are already saturated.
Little chance of disruption. Systems disruption as a means of warfare is on the rise. Also, breakdowns in an overtaxed transmission system cause $100 billion a year in damage, due to dirty power, in end-user equipment.

Micropower
Fortunately, new technologies now make it possible to generate electricity at the level of the home, business, or urban building. This technology, called Combined Heat Power (CHP) or cogeneration (lots of resources are available on this topic). In microCHP systems, you either generate electricity as a byproduct of heating or heating as a byproduct of electricity generation. It does the following:

It allows production of electricity within the structure it will be used. Eliminating transmission losses.
Waste heat generated by the production of electricity can be used to heat water or the home/building. That means the 80% of the energy that would have been lost is now put to use.
It makes electricity both resilient and clean. Transmission breakdowns have zero effect on the end-user. Further, the power is clean/smooth, generating little damage to connected equipment.

Gaps in the Marketplace
Unfortunately, despite the advantages, there are significant gaps in the marketplace for products that are truly resilient. This is a significant opportunity for commercial entrepreneurs and DIY developers. Truly resilient products would provide:

Biomass (pellets, etc.) burning. Existing commercial microCHP systems use natural gas. Residential biomass CHPs are the next step and would likely sell like hot cakes (pellet stoves are).
Generic stirling CHP systems. These systems would allow you to switch the source of heating from natural gas to biomass to concentrated solar. In short, you could optimize depending on costs/availability.

Network Effects on Resilience
Micropower becomes extremely interesting when combined with Microgrids (see the brief: Microgrids for more). Connectivity to a Microgrid would ensure that a community continues to have power even if the national grid is inoperative. Further, if the community Microgrid is smart (meaning it carries data on pricing, etc in addition to power), it would allow local markets to develop. Not only would the individual producer be paid for the production (at end-user rates minus a small transmission charge), they would be incentivized to optimize/grow.

RESILIENT COMMUNITY: Community Geothermal

2008-10-07T11:13:34-04:00

For those of you that don't know, I'm working on a book entitled "The Resilient Community." Essentially, it's about how a shift to local production and distribution of nearly everything can create a stable place to live, work, and raise a family (seen from the top down, it is a self-organizing alternative to a dysfunctional global system). The one problem that has plagued me over the last two years is how do we build local platforms that make resilience possible when communities are in financial distress -- proliferation of foreclosures (gutting the community), incomes in decline to the global lowest common denominator/norm (which is a likely equilibrium point for this crisis), and negative cash flow (debt >> income). One solution I have formulated is to use of volunteers to build platforms that can radically reduce ongoing expenses for community members (it's community judo). A potential candidate that fits this is a community geothermal effort.

Geothermal Heating/Cooling

More than half of all energy usage (not cars and not electricity) is dedicated to heating and cooling of structures (homes and businesses). This expense can be radically reduced by using geothermal heat (50-70 percent). Here's how it works:

The ground below ~6 feet stays at a relatively constant temperature between 40 degrees and 60 degrees F, depending on the area in which you live.
If you drill a well (the most efficient method to tap geothermal), you can insert a plastic pipe that allows you to pump anti-freeze fluid into the hole. This system, which costs VERY little to operate, uses the earth's energy to either heat or cool the fluid to the geographies standard temperature. The system is nearly maintenance free.
Warmed water from the geothermal system can be used to make heat-pumps very efficient. Cooled water from the system can be used, with a forced air fan, to cool a home.

How it works

The biggest expense in any geothermal system is drilling the wells. Costs are excessive (and can run to $10,000 a home). Fortunately, a volunteer effort very much like a local fire department can accomplish this at a small fraction of this cost. Elements include:

Drilling rig. Excellent used drilling trucks sell between $50-100 thousand. Leases are much less. There are open source alternatives that can cost MUCH less in the works.
Training. For most communities, the level of training necessary to run drilling equipment fast and efficiently isn't difficult.
Financing of in-house heating/cooling equipment to connect to ground loop stub. Relatively low cost. Community discounts possible. Payback in measured in a handful of years.

Where to start?

The best place to start with a community geothermal effort is with a community property, most likely K-12 schools. This focus would allow the community to generate the funds required to purchase the equipment and train the volunteers as well as pay back the expense quickly. After that common effort is accomplished, volunteer properties (with requirements for contribution) would be the first beneficiaries of drilling efforts, the follow-ons would be based on lottery and so on until all participatory homes/buildings are brought online. Small ongoing contributions from participatory homes, with volunteers exempt, would pay ongoing expenses.

RC JOURNAL: Splits

2008-10-06T14:52:47-04:00

NOTE; The post below is a fairly sloppy. I have a terrible cold and my head feels like it is ensconced in cotton. However, it's close enough to the mark that I'll let it stand.

What happens when a state become hollow and the global market takes control? People find ways to get by. How? They fall back on primary loyalties -- groups and organizations that will help them survive. Those that cling to individualism quickly find themselves outmaneuvered, cornered and fleeced. In the modern context, three major categories of primary loyalties (filled to the brim with many superempowered individuals) will emerge within a hollow state. They are:

Government/corporate loyalties. Becomes highly corrupt. Only small group and/or strong leaders get benefits (concentrated wealth). Control over police/military power to ensure wealth/survival. Globally networked.
Street loyalties. To family, neighborhood, gang, church, etc. A large segment turns to crime/smuggling. Another segment focuses on protection fees generated by militias. Violent open source warfare. Systems disruption to coerce the hollow state and its corporate allies. Globally networked.
Community loyalty (resilient communities). This is the newest segment and still in its infancy. Very democratic and egalitarian. Focus on local production of everything from food to energy to products. Collective action for group survival at the local level. Globally networked.

NOTE: Mass protest to force governmental response? Mass protest is very unlikely to create any meaningful improvement since there isn't a functional state left to influence.